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They say the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry; in the NFL playoffs, hopes and dreams are often left out to dry. With the best intentions left to bare, the media and rabid fan base usually take their wear. Three weeks for many, two weeks for a couple, whichever road you may take to the Super Bowl, those pigskin footballs sure are supple! Twelve teams can see Super Sunday is within reach, but ultimately two will celebrate on South Beach. There is only one postseason. There is only one January. As old man winter rages on, let football be your sanctuary. Ignoring my worse Dane Cook impressions, there are a lot of interesting subplots to this year’s playoff progressions. Cold beer on tap, Captain Morgan is no sap. Imbibe with your friends (responsibly), and let Chad Ochocinco take you to the very end. Twitter me this, twitter me that, what a playoff this will be with the Cardiac Cats! If any of this did not make sense, no worries because the mounting pressure on the Cowboys makes Jerry Jones very tense. My friend Brent Celek (not to be confused with Tom Selleck) is on cue, with the honor of ushering in the playoff preview.

Often teams are posed with a question as old as free agency, should they rest starters, or play with purpose in hopes of riding a wave of confidence into the big dance? This one fairly simple question leads to many different answers as well as scenarios. To rest starters, you would lose momentum heading into the playoffs (see any Indianapolis Colts playoff team in the last decade except for the 2007 championship team), but you would also assuredly keep your starters/key players healthy for the stretch run (see WR Wes Welker of the New England Patriots). However the common rebuttal would be that players could be injured at any time, in the fourth quarter of week one, or on the opening drive of the Divisional rounds. There is no one right answer, as every team has a different agenda, and different scenarios beget different outcomes. The 2007 Dallas Cowboys played their starters until the very end, but still lost their last game to the hapless Washington Redskins, and proceeded to lose to the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants two weeks later. New England this season managed to grab the number 3 seed, but they themselves had a very inconsistent year, as such Coach Belichick opted to play his starters in week seventeen. As the story goes, they lose Welker to a knee injury in the early part of the game. For a veteran team, resting starters assures you will be fielding your best team with the best chance to win. For a young team wide-eyed and head spinning heading into the playoffs, the wave of confidence/momentum is essential. It really comes down to what the coach and the team is comfortable with. Because you cannot control what happens on the field of violent collisions, I for one think that you cannot blame coaches who rather sit their starters to begin the second season with a clean, healthy slate. Just keep key players away from stairs in their homes (see Los Angeles Lakers F Ron Artest). So while the best laid plans are still just plans, sometimes they still go awry.

In the case of the Indianapolis Colts, their decision to forego the potential for a perfect season makes perfect sense. Their history of winning at least two games in a row in the postseason to make it the Super Bowl is not favorable. No one will argue that without this year’s MVP QB Peyton Manning completely upright, that the Colts will advance past the Divisional rounds. Taken into consideration, the call to rest starters for a team already riddled with injuries was really in my unqualified opinion, the prudent option. Given their overall struggles in the playoffs, why sacrifice the goal of a Super Bowl berth with a healthy team for the chance at the perfect season with a battered group, when the Colts’ chances of winning three games in a row in the postseason were already slim? The 2007/2008 18-1 Patriots took all the stigma out of the hype to pursue perfection, and their gassed-out performance in the Super Bowl proved the toil and mental/physical drain that can wash over a team when they have to grind out every single game. The one downside to teams like the Colts, the New Orleans Saints, the San Diego Chargers, or the Arizona Cardinals sitting out their starters in the last game, is that they are depriving fans who paid good money to see good football.

All things considering, this is shaping up to be one of the more interesting playoffs in recent memory. We begin with three Wild Card match-ups that pit teams against each other who just played the same opponents the very previous week. You have also have three out of the four top seeded playoff teams essentially backing into their way into the playoffs, especially if you count the Minnesota Vikings who did end the regular season with a win over a New York Giants team that essentially had nothing left to play for in the last game. There is also the potential that QB Brett Favre could meet up (yet again) with his former mates in the Divisional Round or even the Conference Championships, should the Green Bay Packers get past the Arizona Cardinals and depending on the outcome of the other games to set the proper seed match-ups. The much publicized playoff drought in Dallas takes center stage in unfamiliar territory as Cowboys Stadium hosts its first playoff game against familiar bitter rivals.

In the AFC, a mild buzz grows around the unpredictable circumstance of the Cincinnati Bengals going up against the New York Football Jets who in their own right, look for their first Super Bowl win since Joe “Willie” Namath still patrolled the sidelines. Their dependence rests on the elite defense of Rex Ryan led by all-world cornerback Darrelle Revis, and on the unsure rookie arm of QB Mark “Willie” Sanchez. It remains to be seen how healthy WR Chad Ochocinco will be after the injury to his knee during warm-ups to last week’s regular season game where he did not live up to his end of the friendly wager between Ochocinco and Revis for the rights to change his name back from Ochocinco to Johnson, after he changed it to Ochocinco from Johnson a year ago. I’m not sure how Revis benefits from this bet whether or not if he wins it.

On the other side of the conference, it will be hard to see how the winner of the slugfest between the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots will last against the well-rested Indianapolis Colts or the San Diego Chargers. I personally think the Colts will do better than in years past as long as Manning does not turn the ball over, and their bend-but-not-break defense keeps dialing up the key stops. The Chargers on the other hand, may not be as good as advertised despite being owners of the longest active winning streak at eleven games. I have actually contradicted myself because Indianapolis and San Diego are two of the worse run offensive/run defensive teams in the playoffs. Based on these stats, I should think that neither will fare well in the postseason. However, as Manning has not historically had a dominant running game, nor has he needed one (except in cold-weather stadiums, which he won’t see as proud owner of home field advantage) leads me to believe the Colts have a better chances than their AFC top-seeded counterparts. The Chargers who also boast an elite QB in Philip Rivers and a powerful passing offense, usually have a great running game to complement. Future Hall-of-Famer RB LaDainian Tomlinson, however only ran a paltry career-low 3.3 yards-per-carry. Yes, his rush attempts were also at an all-time low, but that may be more of the team shifting its identity to a pass-first mentality. What’s more alarming is that his very capable backup, RB Darren Sproles also struggled to run the ball coming in with a career-low 3.7 ypc.

I realize that in this day and age, passing offenses take precedence for overall success in lieu of the old fashioned smash-mouth football favored years ago. Taking a look at all of the playoff teams, only the New York Jets, the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Baltimore Ravens to an extent field mediocre to poor passing offenses. Nine, nine of the twelve playoff teams field prolific passing offenses, which logically infers that teams with top-rated pass defenses like the Jets, Packers, Bengals, and Ravens will give themselves a good chance of advancing given their ability to stop the pass.

As a big proponent of balance, I personally think that any team that finds that perfect balance in all three phases (offense, defense, special teams), and ultimately has momentum on their side will succeed. The best example is the 2008/2009 Arizona Cardinals who on a wave of momentum carried their team to the Super Bowl despite a no-name but gritty defense, a below average running game that peaked at the right time (with a lot of help from veteran RB Edgerrin James), and doing very well what they are reputed to do well: pass the football.

Overall I really think it comes down to favorable match-ups, the ability to make adjustments, a balanced effort from all three phases of football, and a little bit of luck. So while every team has it’s deficiencies, whichever ones hides theirs the best, or somehow coaxes its deficiency to barely average will advance in the playoffs.

That being said, I think the Cincinnati Bengals at home with a fresh RB Cedric Benson will win versus the New York Jets. A renewed effort to stop the Jets’ potent running game, forcing Broadway Sanchez into throwing INTs should deliver victory as long as QB Carson Palmer is not saddled by his receivers dropping the ball like they did in week seventeen.

The Philadelphia Eagles will be sure to blitz 100% more than in their shutout loss to the Dallas Cowboys just last week. They have the most explosive offense in my unsolicited opinion, with the ability to complete the deep pass at any time they want to. Several drop balls, several missed opportunities last week lead me to believe, they only need to connect on 33% of their deep attempts to put a lot of points on the board and pressure this already pressured Dallas team. My beloved Cowboys do have a hot defense that has simply peaked late in the season and hopes to carry this success deep into the playoffs. This Cowboys team may be the most balanced of all the teams on the offensive side of the ball. The Saints’ backfield trio of RBs Mike Bell, Reggie Bush, and Pierre Thomas are dealing with various injuries; Thomas is the most significant as he is out with a rib injury. Since Favre seems to be successfully lobbying for the offense to focus around his arm instead of all-pro RB Adrian Peterson, this reinforces the notion that the Cowboys field a dangerous, balanced attack on offense as long as they do not turn the ball over and execute. Ifs, ands, and buts, but Dallas despite the spotlight and despite my unruly man-love for them stands as a legitimate threat heading into the playoffs.

As nothing is guaranteed, I will go ahead and offer unwanted analysis of the rest of the Wild Card match ups this weekend. The Baltimore Ravens head into New England as a tough team that feasted on weak competition and barely lost close games to very good teams throughout the season. All of their losses were within six to ten points (with exception to a thirteen point loss to Green Bay) to purely playoff teams. The red flag is that they struggled against passing teams, and the Patriots are not known for their intense ground game. New England on the other hand cannot generate a pass rush usually profound in Bill Belichick’s coaching career with the Patriots. However I lean to the Patriots as I believe they will do enough at home. The loss of Welker is huge, but WR Julian Edelman will do his best Wes impression.

The last game on the docket between the Arizona Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers duplicates the match-up seen a week ago when Green Bay trounced the second unit of the Cardinals. We should fully expect a better effort from the defending NFC Champions, but I fully expect a Packers win. If not for the media-induced magical season of the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay may very well be the second seed given their overall body of work this season. Being swept by the Vikings, and an inexplicable loss to the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers adds three losses to an overall impressive record. Wins against Dallas, Baltimore and a flukey loss in the last seconds to the Pittsburgh Steelers show the potential for this team. They own a stout defense that can stuff the run, defend the pass, as well as rush the quarterback effectively. QB Aaron Rodgers is in full control of this powerful passing attack, and protects the football as well as anyone. Their running game has picked up steam as of late, so if you were to look for a dark horse heading into the postseason, look no further than the Packers. The public propensity to think that Arizona will just turn on the juice like last year and go on a torrid run has merit. However I see it differently as the Cardinals are 10-5 in a horrible division that they could not sweep, and their only quality win throughout the season was the Vikings. A cupcake schedule to say the least for a Super Bowl participant no less has me feeling bearish for this team.

So as you hole up in your man-cave this weekend while winter rages on outside, do not adjust your HD Television sets, or call your local satellite provider, mistakenly believing that they are showing last week’s games. No, they are just the same match-ups in a new week with hopefully the same results (aka wins for Dallas and Green Bay).