NFL09 Week IX
A common sentiment among NFL coaches, even NFL fans is that they would rather have a “game-manager” taking snaps rather than a “gun-slinger” under center. Of course there are also a select group who would rather have the latter. Which would you prefer? Ideally I would rather have both traits in the quarterback that leads my team. Perfection is fleeting, and to have both would mean having a first ballot hall-of-famer. Alas Joe Montana is not walking through that door, and as close to perfect a passer Dan Marino was, he never won a Super Bowl due to many reasons outside of his control. So our argument remains with one trait or the other. Many decry the amount of attention the pivot garners, but the fact remains that in American football, no other position has access, touches and controls that oblong-shaped leathery ball more than the quarterback. As Uncle Ben would say, “for SOFTER rice, use more water and simmer for a LONGER time. Do not lift lid while cooking (steam cooks rice).” Well… the more applicable cheesy quote would be from the other Uncle Ben, “With great power, comes great responsibility!” Spider-Man likes his rice soft, and takes his great power with greater responsibility.
As I digress, we can aptly contrast the season two particular QBs who’s career trajectory will forever be linked based on their success. The marquee trade of 2009 between the Chicago Bears and the Denver Broncos have brought mixed results. You couldn’t ask for a better representation of “game-manager vs. gun-slinger” than the direct comparison between Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler. With a career QB rating of 76.0, pass percentage of 57%, and a 39:28 TD:INT ratio, Kyle Orton more aptly fits the mantra of a sub-par quarterback. However when you surround the QB with a strong running game, and a stout defense, you can actually hide your signal-caller by having him hand the ball off more, and only make him throw the ball when absolutely necessary.
In Chicago, home of the run-first, play defense football philosophy, QBs such as Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman thrived longer than they should have. The down-side to this type of style is when you need to come from behind, or when you are in a back-and-forth type of game, your game-manager will ultimately find himself grossly under-qualified to win you the game. The advantage to this style is that by relying on a running game and a tough defense, you control the game, control the time of possession, and in any lead, your team will more than likely be able to keep that lead by not turning the ball over. However, Kyle Orton’s 9:13, and 18:12 TD:INT ratio in 2 of the last 3 seasons does not suggest he is the ideal game-manager coaches seek out. His availability for trade suggests as much. Nevertheless, one cannot discount the 6-1 start the Denver Broncos with Orton’s outstanding 95.5 QB rating for the season and his 9:1 TD to INT ratio. The success can be accredited to coaching, the top-ranked Bronco defense, and a better set of receivers.
Jay Cutler on the other hand, embodies the “gun-slinger” image of the sure-handed QB and equally as ego-centrically the sure-minded mentality of the most glamorous position in sports. With a 86.0 career QB rating and a lifetime 62.7% pass percentage, Cutler shows promise in the face of criticism that he hasn’t fully matured mentally in the aspect of the game. Blessed with a strong arm (coaches and NFL scouts salivate here), and all the physical tools needed of a QB, what Cutler lacks in supporting cast (an average set of receivers), and a team system to fit his style (a run-first offense), it’s almost like shoving a square peg into a round hole. Two of the last three seasons in Denver, Cutler has had a 20:14, and 25:18 TD to INT ratio which suggests that he is capable of spectacular passing clinics on opposing teams (evident by the 20+ TD stats), as well as the risk-reward heavy on the risk mistakes that could mean the difference between a close win and a close loss (evident by the 14 and 18 INTs). The advantage with the gun-slinger is that he could single handedly bring a team from behind, or in a back and forth game where his team needs a TD or FG in the last seconds for the win, he could drive the length of the field (i.e. Joe Montana, John Elway). However in a close game (most NFL games are close if you ignore this season’s many blowouts versus bad teams), one ill-advised INT at a crucial juncture could cost that team the win. As you can see the polar difference between a game-manager and a gun-slinger lies in the fact that while a gun-slinger is capable of many more possibilities on offense, his mistakes could drive a coach, GM, and fan-base crazy.
I would point out the discrepancy between Orton on a pass-friendly offense, and Cutler saddled by a run-first team, but the fact surprisingly remains that both QBs attempted roughly the same amount of passes this season. Numbers don’t lie, so one cannot discount that Orton with a 9:1 TD:INT ratio and helping his team to a 6-1 start fares better than his counterpart. As of press time, with 11 TDs and 11 INTs, Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears sitting at 4-3 and looking up at the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings in their division, one could say Denver got the better end of that trade. You, Sportsboner Nation (yeah, I really did just type that), know better than that. One season does not a trade justify. Many possibilities still exist. In 2-3 seasons, the face of the Broncos’ receiving corp could drastically change, their defense could be worse (especially if defensive coordinator Mike Nolan scratches that head coaching itch), and really if Kyle Orton has peaked this season, Broncos fans everywhere will be wishing for Jay Cutler back like guys pine for ex-girfriends when drunk at 2am on a lonely Saturday night. In 2-3 seasons, the Bears could upgrade their receiving corps with a draft pick here, or a free agent pickup there, and they could actually get some mileage out of RB Matt Forte suffering from a bad case of sophomore slump.
All ifs, ands, and buts, but the entertainment lies in the possibilities as a pure football fan, or a fan of either team. Wow, I just read the beginning of that last sentence, crazy. I should note that it’s still only mid-season, and while I do not foresee the Bears making leaps in the standings, I do think the Broncos fizz to the finish line. To quote a famous independent presidential candidate, “You can’t stick a porcupine in barn, light it on fire and expect licorice!” Which means absolutely nothing other than that you can’t stick Kyle Orton in a lineup, surround him with talented receivers, a good defense, and expect him to keep the fire going all season. Well… actually you can, and you can still expect licorice, its divine. My point is that the Broncos are very capable of going deep into the playoffs, but something tells me when a team can score on their defense, and force the offense to make plays to get back into the game (like Baltimore did last week), their success will start to wane.
So while Orton has been a pleasant surprise, my personal sentiment to this thesis is that given a choice, I would rather have the gun-slinger. As punch-in-the-crotch feelings go, induced by bone-headed interceptions, and tough losses piled on unnecessarily by the mistakes of the QB, I always choose the more flashy route. After all, I want to be excited, not put to sleep. “Game-manager” is just another way of saying, “she’s got a GREAT personality!” So as I’ve effectively put the kibosh on my karma for the week, on to the picks:
Last week: 8-5-0
Year to date: 49-49-1
Kansas City Chiefs +6.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens -3 @ Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts -8
Washington Redskins +8.5 @ Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears -2.5
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots -10.5
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints -12.5
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks -10.5
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers -4.5
San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants -5
Dallas Cowboys +3 @ Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ Denver Broncos




what’s with the denver love-fest?
@Sam
I thought I was a little rough on them. Hence the prediction they will fizzle down the stretch. I’m a guy, what do you expect? I get a little man-love for other teams from time to time lol.