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As a true sports fan, you can never be complacent with the way your favorite team is performing. Even if say they are currently 3-0 in a weak division in an even weaker conference. Even if they are “America’s Team.” And especially even if they are home to the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders. Even if they have a pedigree of 8 Super Bowl appearances, and ultimately 5 titles to go along with it. Even if they are offensively no. 1 in points per game, no. 5 in rushing AND passing, no. 2 in yards per game, and yes of course 3-0 (the only stat that matters). Yet skeptics like me will point to that porous defense: 21st in yards allowed, 23rd in passing, and 18th in points allowed. However a closer look will also reveal that the Boys are 8th in the league in stopping the run.

Why is that stat alone so far more paramount than the other pessimistic defensive numbers that truly reflects why this team is 3-0 instead of 1-2? Like in every sport, the formulas to winning are simple. In basketball, its solid PG play + defense + post presence = wins; in baseball its starting pitching + bullpen pitching + timely hits on offense = wins; and in football its run offense + run defense = wins. By running the ball, (especially with a lead), you may be playing conservative, but the percentages are on your side as you are milking the clock, you are imposing your will on the other team, and you are really tiring out their defense over the course of the game as the time of possession racks up in your favor. By choosing to tote the rock instead of smoke it downfield, you reduce your chances of turnovers which are important litmus tests to tell you if you have any chance of winning the game. The ability to stop the run also only puts more pressure on the opposing team’s passing game, and in a 3-4 defense, with LBs able to cover the pass, you can often disguise your coverage, take chances on blitz packages, and hope to bring pressure to the QB and force mistakes. In other words, the ability to stop the run is the foundation for your defense, and with that pass defense, blitzing to create pressure/sacks, become successful over time as long as the foundation is solid.

This is why that so far even though the Cowboys’ secondary are their perceived weakness, their ability to run the ball (with the right RB, more on that later), and stop the run has elevated them to the top of the league rankings. Not so fast. With continual success in stopping the run, and the better overall play of CB Anthony Henry (who has 4 INTs in the last two games), its no secret that the points allowed by the Boys have gone down dramatically from 35 to 20 to 10. Sure it can be argued that the Giants boast the better offensive team compared to the Dolphins and Bears, but if the Cowboys allowed 35+ for 3 weeks straight, we wouldn’t even need that argument.

Which finally brings us to the point of the stellar RB play exhibited by Dallas. The main cogs in this ground assault are Marion Barber III, and Julius Jones. Drafted in the 2nd round in Bill Parcells’ 2nd year with Dallas, Jones came with high expectations. Known as a speedster, with game-breaking ability, I became a fan of our newest RB to try to fill Emmitt Smith’s shoes. Despite the injury bug plaguing him early in his career, he enticed and teased everyone with his breakaway speed and impressed his rookie season with games of 150, 198. and 149 rushing yards. I would liken his style to that of a corvette. Jones runs very smooth, with no herky jerky motions, and with only one cut and the right hole, he could gain alot of yards very fast.

His counterpart, Marion Barber III, came into the league as a 4th rounder fresh from sharing the load in college with another stellar RB. His style is more of a power rush, eager to make contact, and punish the tackler. His motion is more staggered compared to Jones’ fluid fashion between the tackles. However after 2 full seasons it’s become apparent that Barber is clearly the better runner. At least this year as evidenced by his slow increase in carries and production. The days of Barber only being a TD specialist (2006) are long gone with his production this year steadily improving in all facets of the game. As for Jones, his days are numbered. Hearing him blame Parcells for his lack of production (the man who drafted him btw) is indicative of where his career may be headed next. This is a contract year, and yet his carries have already been reduced from 16 to 7 in a matter of 3 weeks. Though he still possesses the speed that has served him well, it can be clearly seen that though Barber may be slower, he is also harder to tackle. The ease of which to tackle Julius Jones is backed up by his paltry 3.3 YPC compared to Barber’s 6.4 YPC. Keep in mind that Barber has carried the ball only 2 more times than Jones, and though again Barber is not known as a speedster, he has had longer runs of 40 and 54 already in the season. Of course it’s a what have you done for me lately kind of league, but largely if one examines the careers of both young men, one can see that Barber has always been teetering on the edge of greatness, only his opportunities have been limited to a 3rd down back role. Marion Barber starting for my fantasy football team notwithstanding, it wouldn’t be a bold statement to say this is his breakout season. Jones on the other hand has been given every opportunity and only has come up injury prone, and inexplicably possesses the mentality to bite back at the man who brought him into the league. Yes, its a long season and things could change, but so far things aren’t looking too well for Mr. Jones, while the other Mr. Jones (Jerry) has not rushed to attempt to resign his RB. Only more proof that perhaps the Cowboys are ready to roll with the Hummer instead of the Corvette.

Week 4 picks:

NFL YTD: 23-19-6
Last week: 4-9-3

Green Bay @ Minnesota +1.5

Houston @ Atlanta +3

New York Jets @ Buffalo +3.5

Baltimore -4.5 @ Cleveland

St. Louis +11 @ Dallas

Chicago @ Detroit +3

Oakland @ Miami -3.5

Seattle -1.5 @ San Francisco

Tampa Bay @ Carolina pk

Pittsburgh @ Arizona +6

Kansas City @ San Diego -12

Denver @ Indianapolis -9.5

Philadelphia -3 @ New York Giants

New England @ Cincinnati +7

NFL YTD: 19-10-3
Last week: 10-5-1

The presidency of George Bush progresses towards winding down, the war in Iraq reeks of unstable political tension, as well as endless danger for our troops, and the economy is recovering from a recession. Meanwhile, Clinton seeks election to the White House, Nintendo boasts the best selling video game console, dorks (like me) obsess over all things Star Wars, the Simpsons family cartoon sitcom are chugging along, and Michael Jackson has a new nose.

The Green Bay Packers, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Dallas Cowboys are 2-0 thus far in the young season while O.J. Simpson faces serious legal trouble laced with a potentially long term prison sentence. Is it the 90s? Nah. It’s 2007, and though many things seem eerily familiar, they are in fact just a reflection of the past, and a reminder that history tends to repeat itself. Good or bad. So while it is the 21st century, keep in mind that Kato Kaelin is still unemployed and probably crashing on Simpson’s couch. Some things never change.

Some thoughts before we get to this week’s picks:

1) It’s nice to see that the money-grubbing, attention whores known as the Goldman’s are still harping and hooting over the money-making machine that is Simpson (at least that’s how they see him). Thousands of unfortunate parents outlive their children, hundreds of murders are committed everyday, and yet people have to find a way to move on, and have to try to not carry that hate with them anymore, ultimately through soul-searching and solace, not through monetary rewards in a civil court. It doesn’t seem to me that the Goldman’s are acting out in revenge, but instead for press time, and leverage to squeeze more pennies from the golf pants that Simpson sports on Florida golf courses everywhere in his crusade to “find the real killers.” The personal issues of Simpson aside, in my opinion, it is tasteless that the Goldmans would venture to acquire the rights of Simpson’s fake insanity-induced autobiography, only to turn it around and try to sell the book themselves.

2) There’s more than meets the eye with the NFL’s dealings in regards to Bill Belichick and the controversy surrounding cameras, stolen defensive signs, and backstabbing former assistants. Tapes were destroyed, in order to prevent more leaks (a la Fox Sports last Sunday), and materials pertaining to the case were thrown away without allowing the judgmental public eye seeing them. So instead of putting it to rest, the NFL instead has decided to play oppressive government and decide that its best that an undeservedly smug and arrogant, yet talented coach be protected from any further PR damage. Now there will be only more speculation instead of conclusions.

3) However in the scope of things, though I believe this gives you some sort of an edge, it does not a champion make, because plays are made by the players, and games won by a team effort, not the roving cameraman in a windbreaker. The more interesting story to me, is Kevin Everett. From the diagnosis of possible death, to the possibility of walking again; this feel-good story is certainly nothing short of a miracle.

Week 3 Picks:

Indianapolis -6 @ Houston

Buffalo +16.5 @ New England

Miami +3 @ New York Jets

Detroit @ Philadelphia -6

San Francisco +9 @ Pittsburgh

St. Louis +3.5 @ Tampa Bay

San Diego -5 @ Green Bay

Arizona @ Baltimore -8

Minnesota @ Kansas City -3

Cleveland @ Oakland -3

Cincinnati @ Seattle -3.5

Jacksonville @ Denver -3

Carolina @ Atlanta +3.5

New York Giants +3.5 @ Washington

Dallas +3 @ Chicago

Tennessee +4 @ New Orleans

NFL YTD: 9-5-2 last week

The advent of week 2 has the league swirling in controversy yet again with the big story being accusations of spying/cheating by the New England Patriots. Lost in the fray is the minor miracle of Bills backup TE Kevin Everett slowly regaining some sensations throughout his body. Also forgotten is the overall sloppiness of the play throughout the league. The belief that at this point in the season, the offense is behind the defense holds some water, but in my opinion, the combination of an unnecessarily long preseason and the fear of injuries leads to a long layoff between exhibition games and regular season games. As a result, the starters who should be protected, are yet instead visibly rusty when its time to play.

Week 2 picks:

Houston +6.5 @ Carolina

Atlanta +10 @ Jacksonville

Indianapolis -7 @ Tennessee

San Francisco+3 @ St. Louis

Green Bay pk @ New York Giants

Buffalo +9.5 @ Pittsburgh

Cincinnati @ Cleveland +6.5

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay +3.5

Minnesota +3 @ Detroit

Dallas -3.5 @ Miami

Seattle -3 @ Arizona

New York Jets +10 @ Baltimore

Kansas City +12 @ Chicago

Oakland +10 @ Denver

San Diego +3.5 @ New England

Washington @ Philadelphia -6.5

Finally! The NFL is here, and that means an end to a whole summer of speculation, Michael Vick, and the stagnant baseball pennant race.

At press time, the Thursday Night Opening Kickoff game between the Colts and the Saints only served as a reminder that the defending champs, are a force to be reckon with. Though everyone is ready to anoint the reloaded New England Patriots as the next champs, I contend that the Colts remain the favorite until further notice.

On the flip side, I truly believe the NFC Champs, the Chicago Bears will take a step back this year, with the loss of their top RB, and the fact that they are still left with the wildly erratic Rex Grossman.

Of course I will be rooting on my favorite team, the Dallas Cowboys to go deep into the playoffs this year, but objectively I see a healthy Seattle Seahawks team playing in that weak NFC to contend strongly. The Cowboys lost the architect of their current team, Bill Parcells to retirement in favor of 3-4 defensive guru, Wade Phillips who has the enviable job of returning America’s Team (arguable) to the glory of a Super Bowl Championship. They return a stout defensive team with slight question marks to the secondary, and depth at nose tackle. Offensively, they are loaded at all the skills position and have added size and strength to the offensive line. Of course, the Cowboys will go as far as their pivot, QB Tony Romo. I look for Romo to lead this team to prosperity in his 2nd year as a starter and put behind him the memory of that infamous field goal bobble that cost the Boys’ playoff game last year against the Seahawks.

In the AFC, I don’t see anyone nearly to the standard as the Colts and the Patriots are in terms of quality of the QB leading the team, a solid running game, strong D, and two exceptional coaches. Attributes that the other teams could not boast. So with those two slugging it out, I believe the Colts will do enough to get by T. Brady and the Patriots. Super Bowl Pick: Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys (a TV network’s ratings fantasy come true)

Week 1 picks considered with a spread system. (ahem) That is if gambling were legal outside of Nevada:

*Picks in bold with spread.

New Orleans +6 @ Indianapolis (note: made this pick before seeing how the Colts seemed to be better off without both starting CBs from last year’s team who were let go. Their replacements played solid, and the run D looked very strong against the combo of Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister.)

Denver @ Buffalo +3

Miami @ Washington -3

Cleveland +4.5 @ Pittsburgh

Tennessee @ Jacksonville -6.5

Kansas City @ Houston -3

Philadelphia @ Green Bay +3

Carolina @ St. Louis -1

Atlanta +3 @ Minnesota

New England -6 @ New York Jets

Tampa Bay @ Seattle -6

Detroit +1.5 @ Oakland

Chicago @ San Diego -6

New York Giants @ Dallas -5.5

Baltimore @ Cincinnati -2.5

Arizona @ San Francisco -3

Holocaustal canine crimes committed by a strong-armed, fleet-footed public figure, hardwood arbitrators guilty of racketeering, rampant chemical substance abuse amongst genetically altered giant headed freaks, and a video game icon’s namesake gone insane inciting a bloody melee in a secluded establishment that specializes in exhibiting unclad gyrating females.

With the right negative spin, any story can make headlines and cloud the world of sports. From Michael Vick’s infamous dog-fighting controversy, to the NBA referee betting scandals, to steroid abuse in baseball, and to Pacman Jones’ strip club shootings; it’s a wonder why anyone watches sports anymore. Lost in the mix, everyone conveniently forgets that all athletes/referees are humans, men capable of mistakes and temptations. Sports ideally should be nothing more than entertainment. A past-time designed to be an outlet from the problems of the world, devoid of politics and the under-handed tactics of corporate America. Yet here we are, swirling in storms of controversy, politics and business acumen driven by money. The summer of 2007 shrouded by a few bad men couldn’t end soon enough.

Yet when we as fans, leave the problems to the lawyers, the bickering to the radio shock jocks, the slandering to the columnists, and the opinions to the rabid arm-chair QBs filling up their blogs with endless banter (wink wink); sports is what it ultimately is. Sports becomes an excuse to gather with your friends and cheer on your favorite teams, or even root against much hated rivals. Sports becomes comradery, be it between buddies, family, or even strangers. There is nothing quite like a dozen postpubescent college boys gather around a 13 inch television in a tiny dorm room just to see Dirk Nowitski (before he spoke fluent English), Steve Nash (when he was known more for his atrocious moppy hair than his MVP-caliber game), and Michael Finley (before he was a role player, but instead an everyday starter playing heavy minutes) upend the Utah Jazz (when they still had John Stockton and Karl Malone). Standing in line 3 hours before kickoff among thousands of other collegiate drunks at 9am just to see a football game is well worth it especially when you are a part of 50,000 fans crowded in Jones Stadium (before it was Jones AT&T Stadium) screaming and cheering for an exciting football game. In the end, you realize sports in general is bigger than anyone, any one individual. It is a concept borne of competition, sportsmanship; a bonding experience indescribable until you taste the thrill of winning, and the sour disappointment of losing.

When we leave the adult problems of the world outside the lines, we are left with just the game, meant to be played as boys play it in neighborhoods all over America. At it’s purest form, sports is nothing more than kids playing catch, pickup games, and backyard two-below with the only goal being to win, have fun, and maybe pick up some scars along the way. Chicks dig scars.